Imported waste paper will continue to shrink, and the goal of zero waste import in 2020 is clear.
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Under the ban on solid waste import, external waste or face zero import supervision, the limit on the quantity and quality of foreign waste imports will reach an unprecedented level, which will directly affect the development of China's paper industry. Waste paper imports will fall from a low of 25.72 million tons in 2017 to a very low level, even zero. As of July 2018, China's waste paper imports were only 8.53 million tons, down 49.8% year-on-year. The future import quota will continue to shrink.
At the same time, China's quality requirements for waste will continue to increase. In the external waste rate of 0.5% policy superimposed US waste 100% out of the box & box, the risk of external waste return is greatly increased. Since the beginning of the year, the unified deployment of the General Administration of Customs has organized a joint action of “Blue Sky 2018” to combat solid waste, and strictly investigate the criminal activities of smuggling solid waste by means of hiding, false reporting, false borrowing and reselling licenses of other types of cargo channels, while sealing Blocking the smuggling of solid waste smuggling at sea and resolutely blocking all types of solid waste outside the country. At present, the action has achieved positive results. According to the monitoring data of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, there have been many incidents of US and China's waste returning since 2018, with a total scale of more than 6,000 tons.
Among them, on September 6, Hangzhou Customs was subordinated to Huzhou Customs to carry out a batch of over-standard waste papers, and 80 containers of more than 900 tons of super-standard waste paper were shipped from Zhejiang Huzhou Port and returned to the United States. This is the 14th batch of waste paper that has been returned by Hangzhou Customs in the past month. The total weight of 14 batches of waste paper is nearly 3,200 tons. According to the inspection by relevant departments, these waste paper entrained materials exceeded the standard and did not meet the national solid waste environmental protection control standards.
In China, the proportion of imported waste paper used in papermaking is relatively high, and the change in the amount of imported waste paper has a greater impact on the domestic paper market. According to statistics from the Paper Industry Association, in 2017, China's pulp consumption accounted for 79.0% of domestic pulp consumption, while waste paper pulp consumption accounted for 21.0%, which was at a high level.
From the perspective of the proportion of imported waste paper pulp in China's waste paper pulp consumption, China's waste paper pulp consumption in 2017 was 63.02 million tons, of which 20.63 million tons came from imported waste paper pulp, with a dependence rate of 32.7%.
With the implementation of stringent foreign waste import standards, the amount of imported waste paper will continue to shrink, domestic raw materials will be further insufficiently supplied, and the domestic waste paper gap will be further expanded. The replacement demand for waste in the country has risen, pushing the country's waste prices to rise. The rise in prices of raw materials such as solid waste and wood pulp has further spurred the rise in paper prices.
According to the statistics of the Waste Paper Branch of China Recycling Resources Recycling Association, the price of waste paper in China has risen since January 2017, especially in October 2017, reaching a record high of 1858.91, although there has been a decline, and China's waste paper since 2018. Prices continued to rise. On May 28, the price of waste paper reached 1840.63, which was at a relatively high level. On September 18, 2018, China's waste paper price index was 1721.42. Affected by the quantity and quality restrictions of foreign waste imports, the shortage of waste paper market will help the price of waste paper continue to rise. The impact of waste paper import restrictions on domestic waste paper prices will continue.