World economic situation
We are a big printing company in Shenzhen China . We offer all book publications, hardcover book printing, papercover book printing, hardcover notebook, sprial book printing, saddle stiching book printing, booklet printing,packaging box, calendars, all kinds of PVC, product brochures, notes, Children's book, stickers, all kinds of special paper color printing products, game cardand so on.
For more information please visit
http://www.joyful-printing.com. ENG only
http://www.joyful-printing.net
http://www.joyful-printing.org
email: info@joyful-printing.net
The world economy has its own logic of development, and its development has constantly shaped the overall international pattern.
The analysis of the world economic situation has different perspectives. From the perspective of growth, the world economic growth in 2018 is more satisfactory. But from the perspective of economic governance and economic order, the world economy contains serious uncertainties. In a certain sense, with the outbreak of Sino-US trade disputes as the symbol, the world economy officially entered the critical stage of order reshaping in 2018. It is increasingly difficult for the original international economic order and rules to adapt to the new situation, and the economic interaction of big countries has also entered a new era of adjustment.
China and the United States lead the world economy
PENGPAI News published by Song Guoyou, director of the Center for Economic and Diplomatic Studies at Fudan University, said that the position of China and the United States in the world economy has become more prominent. Both China and the United States have achieved roughly satisfactory economic growth in 2018, and their contributions to the world economy are obvious to all. Due to the tax cut effect at the end of 2017 and the effect of stock market wealth growth, the economy continued to grow strongly in 2018. It is expected that the annual GDP growth rate will reach 3%, one of the best years since the financial crisis. Driven by the 3% growth rate, the US GDP is expected to exceed the US$20 trillion mark, making it the first country in the world to break through this scale. China’s economic growth is equally impressive. Despite a series of unfavorable factors inside and outside, China's GDP growth rate remains at around 6.7%, ranking first in the world in terms of absolute GDP growth. The two engines of China and the United States work together to achieve strong growth in the world economy in 2018. The annual growth rate is expected to exceed 3.5%, making it the best performing year in recent years.
Although China and the United States have injected strong momentum into global economic growth, the trade friction between the two countries has also seriously affected the stability of world economic growth. In particular, the sudden escalation of trade disputes between the two countries in the second half of 2018 has quickly become one of the biggest uncertainties in global economic development. Market confidence was frustrated, the stock market fluctuated sharply, commodity price volatility increased, and negative effects continued to emerge.
In general, the trend of the global economic landscape towards structural changes has not changed. First, the rapid development of China and the United States' respective economies has enabled the two countries to consolidate the position of the top two economies and continue to widen the gap with other economies. The two major economies of China and the United States have increased their share of the world economy to 40. %about. It is the year with the highest proportion of the global economy since the 21st century. The gap between Japan and EU countries and China and the United States has further expanded in 2018. Second, the GDP gap between China and the United States has further decreased. Based on comprehensive purchasing power parity and exchange rate calculations, the GDP gap between China and the United States continues to diminish. The general trend of China’s economic aggregate catching up and surpassing the United States in the next fifteen years has not changed. If calculated according to purchasing power parity, China's economic aggregate actually expands its advantage over the United States. Third, the economic growth rate of developing countries and emerging economies continues to be higher than that of developed economies, and its proportion in the world economy continues to increase.
Significant changes in the global economic philosophy
The article stated that in 2018, the global economic concept has changed significantly. The Washington Consensus, such as free trade and open markets, has encountered serious challenges. Even the United States, the proponent of the Washington Consensus, did not follow the basic idea of the Washington Consensus. Driven by the United States, the global economic concept has seen three major shifts.
The first is the shift from a market economy to a nationalism. Driven by the national interest orientation and the intensified strategic competition among major powers, the intervention of major economies in their domestic markets has become increasingly evident. Governments have frequently formulated various policies, continuously strengthened their intervention in the market, and tried to shape the market direction in order to win competition for other countries and strive for maximization and absoluteization of their economic interests. The government's position in the domestic economy and the international economy has become more prominent, and to a certain extent, even more than the role played by governments during the financial crisis. Trump broke the domestic tradition and publicly accused the Fed of raising interest rates, trying to stop the Fed's monetary policy decision, which is the most typical performance.
The second is the shift from liberalism to protectionism. With the priority of the United States in promoting its own interests abroad, global protectionism is generally more obvious, and global free trade is relatively weak. In order to protect the interests of their own industries and enterprises, some economies have more obvious protection policies in the fields of trade, investment and technology. In the trade field, threats or punitive tariffs have triggered a chain reaction and corresponding counter-measures, resulting in an increase in the global average tariff level. In the investment field, overuse and even abuse of “national security” to limit foreign investment has become increasingly prominent, and global foreign direct investment has sharply shrunk. In terms of technology transfer, technology protectionism is more obvious. The United States, the European Union and other developed countries have introduced more protective investment protection measures and suppressed the rational transfer of technology.
The third is the transition from virtual economy to real economy. Compared with the virtual economy such as the service industry, the current emphasis on the real economy has increased significantly. All major economies are striving for “return in manufacturing” or “manufacturing behind”, seeing manufacturing as a vital industrial sector. At the same time, it is also eager to adopt various forms of policies in order to create a better environment for the development of the manufacturing industry. Some economies have also developed industrial policies in a targeted manner to foster a number of high-end manufacturing industries of strategic importance.
Regional economic cooperation has been strengthened
The article analyzes that although the global economic growth rate has increased in 2018, due to the US government's huge dissatisfaction with the distribution of the benefits of globalization, its large-scale trade disputes have also seriously undermined the cooperation foundation of global governance, coupled with the global economy. The idea began to turn, leading to greater obstacles to global economic governance in 2018.
First, the cognitive differences in economic globalization have hindered the advancement of global economic governance. Global economic governance is essentially the result of the development of globalization. Without a global consensus, it is difficult to form an effective global economic governance. Pursuing the zero-sum game is obviously not the thinking that should advance globalization.
Second, the weakness of the multilateral mechanism of international governance has led to a lack of institutional conditions for global economic governance. The US government ignores the seriousness and importance of the international mechanism, constantly withdraws from the group, attacks the inherent principles of the multilateral mechanism, and tries to adjust the multilateral mechanism to a platform to better serve its own interests. The binding force of the multilateral mechanism has been greatly weakened. Major international economic institutions such as the IMF and the WTO are facing difficulties in coordinating economic policies in major economies. In the midst of difficulties, the international economic governance system can only be adjusted and adapted through further reform and improvement.
In particular, as the first two major economies, China-US comprehensive competition in 2018 has intensified. The United States has defined China as a "strategic competitor." Sino-US economic and trade frictions are not limited to trade and investment, but also gradually spread to finance and The currency sector directly affects the difficulty of cooperation between the two countries in global economic governance. The lack of consistency in the two major powers of China and the United States in global economic governance will not only lose momentum, but also become a new field of strategic games for big countries.
However, in the absence of bright spots in global economic governance, the development of regional economic integration has made gratifying progress. After the United States withdrew from the TPP, the remaining 11 members reached a CPTPP based on the original TPP rules, expressing their strong will to continue to promote regional economic integration. In addition to CPTPP, the two major economies, the EU and Japan, reached a bilateral free trade agreement this year. This agreement is by far the world's largest free trade agreement, covering 28% of global GDP and 37% of total trade.
China firmly promotes the negotiation of regional free trade agreements and strives to work with other members to reach a regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement (RCEP) as soon as possible. The willingness of members of the RCEP16 countries to reach an agreement has increased significantly, and the negotiations have also made substantial progress. The degree of negotiation completion has rapidly increased from less than 50% in 2017 to nearly 80% in 2018. If RCEP is reached, it will cover nearly half of the world's population, 40% of global trade, and nearly one-third of global GDP.
Recent developments in these bilateral and regional-level FTA negotiations indicate that economic globalization and trade liberalization have not come to an end. Whether it is a developed economy or a developing economy, there is still much momentum to promote the in-depth development of economic globalization. In the absence of a major breakthrough in multilateral economic governance at the global level, many positive practices at the regional level will effectively dispel concerns about de-globalization and help counter the trade protectionism provoked by the United States.
Going to the more uncertain 2019
The article believes that the world economic situation in 2019 is even more confusing. The three biggest uncertainties determine how the world economic trend will be next year, and also determine the possible direction of the evolution of the international economic structure in the future.
First, the prospects for US economic growth. Judging from the cycle law and structural factors, the risk of the US economy's 2019 recession has increased. If the US economy goes into recession, then the world economy will face serious challenges. The risks and pressures facing the world economy will increase dramatically. The second is the trend of Sino-US trade war. At the end of the year, the heads of state of China and the United States reached an "intercession" in Argentina, and the relevant work departments are working hard to reach an agreement acceptable to both countries. However, if the Sino-US trade dispute is still repeated in 2019, it will have a serious negative impact on international trade and the development of the global economy. The third is the development of the European economy. On the one hand, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the outcome of Brexit, and the possibility of no agreement to leave the EU still exists. If Britain really leaves the EU in this way, it will bring shocks to the UK and EU economies in the short term. On the other hand, the deep contradictions in the internal social and institutional aspects of the EU revealed by the French Yellow Horse Movement also broke out in the accumulation. In 2019, European countries did not rule out the political events similar to the yellow vest movement. This will also lead to a weakening of the European economy.