Analysis of the Current Situation of China's Printing Industry Economic Operation and Future Industry Development Situation in the First Half of 2018
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First, the economic status of the printing industry
Affected by the slowdown in economic growth, the increase in production costs, and the acceleration of the digitalization and networking process, China's printing industry is facing a series of unfavorable factors, and it is urgent to seek a new path of transformation and breakthrough. In this context, innovation and upgrades will become the main development trend of the printing industry in the next few years, and the reduction of total printing volume may become a reality.
In 2016, the total assets of China's printing industry reached 559.15 billion yuan. The total output value of the industry is 788.185 billion yuan. In 2013, the loss of the printing industry was only 11.2%, and in the first half of 2018, it was as high as 18.4%, and the amount of losses also soared. It is expected that the number of industrial enterprises will decrease in the second half of 2018, and the number of loss-making enterprises and the amount of losses will further increase. As of the first half of 2018, there were 5,624 companies in the printing industry. Among them, there were 1,037 loss-making enterprises with a total loss of 2.18 billion yuan.
In the first half of 2018, the trend of 2017 continued, and the growth rate of main business income increased. The main business income was 342.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. It is expected that the printing and recording media copy of the owner's business revenue will increase slightly in the second half of 2018, and the main business revenue for the year will exceed 350 billion yuan.
In 2016, the total profit of the printing industry decreased by 4.5% year-on-year. In 2017, profits increased substantially, and the total profit of the printing and recording media reproduction industry reached 55.87 billion yuan. It is estimated that the total profit for the year will exceed 60 billion yuan. In 2016, China's printing industry gross profit margin fell to 15.1%, and in 2017, the year-on-year growth of 0.2 percentage points. It is expected that the gross profit of the printing and recording media reproduction industry will remain at around 14% in 2018.
In 2013, the printing industry's profit was 7.9%, and in 2017 it was down 0.2 percentage points from the previous year. It is expected that the industry profit margin will fall below 6% in 2018.
Second, the future development trend of China's printing industry
The market environment in which the Chinese printing industry is located in the next five years is full of severe conditions. On the one hand, it is due to the fluctuation of demand caused by the low-speed operation of the economy during the adjustment of the domestic macro-economic structure and the transformation of the growth mode; on the other hand, the changes in environmental management and the entry barriers to the industry have increased the operating costs of enterprises and the uncertainty of long-term development. Improvement. The development of China's printing industry has entered a new stage.
1. Development trend of the printing industry
(1) Industry maintains medium-speed growth
The annual average growth rate of GDP set by China's National Economic Development Plan (2016-2020) is 6.5%. Referring to the correlation between past printing market growth and macroeconomic GDP growth, as well as observations of Chinese printing companies and regional markets, the average annual growth rate of China's printing industry in the next five years is likely to remain between 5-7%.
Book printing will maintain steady growth at a low speed, journal printing will continue to decline, newspaper printing will decline rapidly; packaging and label printing will maintain medium-speed growth; commercial printing will maintain medium-speed growth.
(2) Rapid increase in industry concentration
The proportion of the main business income of printing enterprises above designated size in China's printing industry will increase from 63% in 2013 to 72% in 2015 to 80% in 2020.
Publishing and printing will be the fastest growing industry concentration area. More than 90% of publications will be printed by print companies (740) above the scale, and it is difficult for print companies below the scale to survive in this area. Offset printing remains the main production tool in this area.
Changes in the government's environmental protection policies and industry access policies will accelerate the capacity integration and layout adjustment between packaging and printing enterprises, and promote the development of the industry in the direction of scale and specialization.
(3) The integration of the Internet platform into the market is gradually emerging
Commercial printing is the most active and promising area of the Chinese printing industry. Realizing the transformation of business model from printing producers to marketing service providers is the key to the future development of commercial printing companies. The Internet is a fusion of traditional printing methods and on-demand printing production methods, creating a platform for communication between manufacturing companies and consumer groups, and providing technical support.
The traditional publication printing enterprises have shifted to the commercial printing field; the links between digital fast printing companies and traditional printing companies are strengthening; the integration of new companies from the IT and Internet fields into the original fields.
2. Development trend of printing equipment and equipment manufacturing industry
How to seize the opportunities provided by China's economic transformation and technological progress, give play to the advantages of local manufacturing industry close to the market, understand the demand, and adhere to the technical innovation based on professional focus, will become the main feature of the future development of China's printing equipment and equipment manufacturing industry.
(1) Printing equipment manufacturing
Intelligent post-press systems, inkjet printing equipment, and environmentally-friendly gravure printing equipment will become hot spots in the future. Taking full advantage of the opportunities provided by the huge domestic printing market, being good at discovering a certain "pain point" in the industrial processing chain, focusing on resources and working hard to solve the "pain point" professional focus will be an effective path for the transformation and upgrading of local printing equipment manufacturers.
(2) Printing equipment manufacturing
Adapting to the needs of the packaging and printing market, further adjustment of product structure is the main trend of the future printing equipment manufacturing industry. The quality of locally produced flexographic printing plates in the printing plate manufacturing industry will be significantly improved, and the output and variety will continue to increase; the annual average growth rate of offset printing plate production will be 4%, and the industry concentration will be further improved;
Printing ink manufacturing industry in the next five years, the average annual growth rate of printing ink production in mainland China is 5%. The focus of ink product development is food packaging inks, label printing inks. On the basis of eliminating benzene-based solvent-based inks, environmentally-friendly inks such as water-based inks, UV inks, EB inks, and vegetable oil-based inks will develop rapidly.