Up to a quarter! Report says the future 36 million US jobs will be replaced by AI
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A new report from the Brookings Institution shows that robots don't replace everyone, but as artificial intelligence accelerates the automation of existing jobs, one-quarter of US jobs will be severely affected.
According to a report released on Thursday, about 36 million Americans are engaged in highly automated work, which means that at least 70% of their work may soon be done by machines using current technology.
Among the most likely to be affected are chefs, waiters and other food service personnel, short-distance truck drivers and office clerks.
Mark Muro, a senior researcher at Brookings and the lead author of the report, said these people will need to quickly improve their skills, regain skills or change jobs.
Mulu said that the timetable for reform may be several years or twenty years.
But this is not because artificial intelligence has not been upgraded, or the technology is not yet mature. This is an economic issue. Automation is likely to be realized faster during the next recession.
More and more artificial intelligence robot development projects are launched every month, but as long as the economy is prosperous and profits are stable, employers are unlikely to invest in such initially costly technologies. But in the event of another serious recession or recession, they will seek layoffs and replace them with machines. Companies are often eager to adopt technologies that cut costs when they lay off employees.
Some economic studies have found that similar shifts in production automation occurred in the early stages of the previous recession, which may be one of the reasons for the “unemployed recovery” after the 2008 financial crisis.
But with the new advances in artificial intelligence technology, it will be more than just industrial and warehouse robots that will change the US workforce.
Self-checkout shop design and computerized hotel concierges will play their part.
Most jobs will change as the machine takes over the day-to-day work, but most American workers will be able to adapt to this change without being replaced.
According to a Washington think tank report, these changes have had the biggest impact on smaller cities, especially those in the heartland and the “rust zone” (the Midwestern states), as well as Indiana and Kentucky.
They will also disproportionately affect young workers who dominate most of the food service industry and other industries with the highest risk of automation.
Some chain restaurants have switched to automatic ordering machines, and some have tried robotic assisted kitchens.
Google is experimenting with its digital voice assistant in the hotel lobby this year, which can instantly translate conversations in dozens of languages.
Autonomous vehicles can replace short-distance delivery drivers.
But Cortes said there is no doubt that there must be winners and losers.
In the near future, the most severely affected are the less educated men who are mainly engaged in manufacturing and other blue-collar jobs; the second is women with moderate education who are mainly engaged in clerical and administrative work.
In the future, as machines become more intelligent, the working class affected by automation may increase.
The Brookings Institution's report analyzes the automation potential of each profession based on research conducted by McKinsey & Company Management Consulting.
Those jobs that are largely unaffected require not only higher education, but also interpersonal skills and emotional intelligence.
Cortes said that these high-paying jobs require a lot of creativity and problem-solving skills.
This will be difficult to replace for new technologies.