Three Books: The Impact of the Financial Tsunami on the Printing Industry
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Hong Jianxiong, Zheng Xiongxiong:
Laoyou Maofeng and Yuanyu brothers invited me to participate in the "Three Books and Calls" communication. The title of this time is: The impact of the financial tsunami on the Chinese printing industry. The topic is very big. I am a bit sincere and fearful. Fortunately, Hong Jianxiong and Zheng Xiongxiong are friends who have met many times to speak freely, and can exchange views frankly. In response to the impact of the financial tsunami, they are fully prepared in thinking and think more about some measures. The plan should be good.
The financial tsunami came suddenly, and its potential was like a raging sea. It has not happened in a hundred years, and its influence has changed. Today, with the global economy becoming more and more integrated, it is difficult for a country and an industry to be independent.
The impact on China's printing industry is the first in the Pearl River Delta region. It is said that hundreds of small and medium-sized printing companies have closed down, including many companies with considerable strength, but compared with direct consumer goods such as toys, shoes, electrical appliances and hardware. It is still relatively small. This is not to say that the impact of the financial tsunami on China's printing industry is weakening, but that there is a certain lag in this effect, first of all direct consumer goods, then by the products that support it, first the virtual economy and then to the real economy. The spread, so the financial tsunami has not yet reached the bottom of the Chinese printing industry, the greater impact is still behind, perhaps in the first half of next year will see more clearly, I think it must not be taken lightly.
Another point is that the impact of the financial tsunami on China's printing industry is subtle. The development of China's printing industry is very uneven. The most direct impact of this tsunami is the export-oriented Pearl River Delta region, and then the Yangtze River Delta region. The Bohai Rim region and the central and western regions have been extended, and the export orders have fallen sharply due to the financial tsunami. The impact of corporate closures, increased unemployment, credit crunch, and stock market plunging are expanding, although the country has expanded domestic demand and finance. There are strong measures in the regulation series. China may be less affected than other countries, but this is not to say that it can escape the crisis, and the impact of local enterprises and some enterprises is still possible, so it is necessary to have sufficient mental preparation.
Third, the impact of this crisis is superficial. At present, the problems reflected by the printing industry in the mainland, especially in Guangdong, such as the appreciation of the renminbi, rising labor costs, rising paper prices, adjustment of export tax rebate policies, etc., have led to a significant increase in printing costs, a sharp drop in profits, and many companies have difficulty operating. Mainly due to the impact of national macro-control at the beginning of this year. Recently, the sudden financial tsunami has made many enterprises worse, bank credit has tightened, corporate capital chain has broken, some enterprises are difficult to resist, some have closed down, and some have closed down (such as Wenzhou area to take a closer look at the industry and wait for the future generation) The superposition of this influence may make the difficulties encountered in some regions and certain enterprises more serious than expected.
Taken together, due to the impact of the financial tsunami, the mainland printing industry will experience a difficult period of a long period of time, or a period of adjustment. I think that the difficulties will be seen a little bit more thoroughly, and more ideological and policy measures will be taken. The preparations will help to avoid being overwhelmed in the event of a sudden encounter.
In the course of this year's macroeconomic regulation and control and financial crisis, there is a noteworthy phenomenon, that is, a group of enterprises have fallen, but some enterprises have grown stronger. Recently, during the 50th anniversary of the Beijing Institute of Printing, I met the two general managers of Heshan Yatu Shi Feng Guangyuan and Yachang Wanjie to talk about the impact of the financial tsunami. Mr. Feng said that this time had little effect on Yatushi, and there was no increase in orders. The reason was that after a batch of SMEs closed down, orders were transferred to them. Wan Zong said that Yachang is expected to increase its output value by 30% compared with the same period of last year. The reason is that they created the creative printing business model of IT+art+market service, which greatly expanded the market space. Therefore, I think this crisis may be an opportunity for the restructuring of the mainland printing industry. Some people say that this time there may be a reshuffle of printing companies.
In fact, the mainland printing industry is currently in a critical period of strategic transformation. After 30 years of rapid development of reform and opening up, the scale of the industry has expanded rapidly. In the past, the contradiction between supply and demand has been resolved, but structural contradictions have become more prominent. The situation is that the printing threshold is too low, causing everyone to engage in printing and printing companies to increase to 100,000 homes. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the threshold for entry. It is also believed that enterprises should compete in the market. The survival of the fittest. I personally think that the "gate" should not be a major problem. The "high threshold" can only "treat the target" and it is difficult to "treat the rule." The government should strengthen macro guidance, establish a fair, just, open and transparent market order, and encourage enterprises to compete fairly in the market. Competent enterprises can continue to grow through mergers in competition, and incapable enterprises are eliminated in competition. Life and death are a pattern of market economy. It is only the moment of financial crisis, this contradiction between life and death is more prominent.
In this way, it is not that we should not support small and medium-sized printing enterprises. Now the state supports and supports small and medium-sized enterprises in credit. The key to small and medium-sized printing enterprises is how small and medium-sized printing enterprises should adjust their industrial direction and corporate structure. I remember that four or five years ago, when studying the long-term development of China's printing and the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", it was suggested that we should start from two aspects when adjusting the corporate structure. First, we must vigorously cultivate large-scale key enterprises and create several output values at 30- A large-scale enterprise group of 5 billion yuan; second, we must guide small and medium-sized enterprises to develop in the direction of "special, special, refined and new". Mr. Wan Jie, who attended the meeting at the time, said that according to the standard of large enterprises, Yachang may not be the target of support, but Yachang should work hard on the characteristics of "professional". In fact, this is the direction of structural adjustment of most small and medium-sized printing enterprises. In the past few years, Yachang has been supported by many government incentive funds in the development of cultural and creative industries. Last year, sales reached 400 million yuan. Another example is Guangdong Wanchang, which specializes in beer labels. It is refined and strong, with a market share of 25%. In 2007, its sales reached 656 million yuan, ranking 28 among the top 100 printing companies. Therefore, in the process of bringing the enterprises to "shuffle" in the financial tsunami, we should learn from the experience of "Two Changs" and make up our minds to improve the "internal strength" in the adjustment structure. Of course, "Two Changs" will also have to withstand the test of a severe situation.
So in the face of a grim situation, we should and must first have confidence. This confidence comes from two aspects: First, the government has introduced and will further introduce a series of measures to expand domestic demand. The Third Plenary Session will make major decisions on "agriculture, rural areas and farmers". The industry has opened up vast markets to make policy guarantees. As long as the country can withstand the impact of the financial tsunami, it will build a strong barrier for the development of the printing industry. On the other hand, it comes from our own industry. Now the printing industry in mainland China is thick and deep, as long as we further "Strengthen the body", in the financial tsunami, sweeping away a group of "Chanzhi rot leaves", it is possible to "phoenix nirvana, resurrection", to promote industrial restructuring and upgrading, I hope we work together.