The elimination of backward production capacity has boosted the prosperity of China's paper market
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On July 11, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the list of enterprises that eliminated backward production capacity in 18 industrial sectors this year, and the backward production lines (equipment) and production capacity. Among them, the paper industry eliminated 8.996 million tons, involving 599 enterprises. According to Guojin Securities, the backward production capacity of the paper industry has exceeded expectations this year, and the supply and demand relationship in the paper market has entered a period of gradual improvement. If backward production capacity is eliminated, the paper market is expected to enter a booming period in 2012.
The phase-out announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has increased by 750,000 tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 10%. Regardless of whether it is from absolute or eliminated, the backward production capacity of the paper industry is more than expected. 8.2 million tons accounted for about 8% of the total capacity of the paper industry. If the production capacity of coated paper, white cardboard and newsprint not affected by the elimination is subtracted, the elimination will account for nearly 10% of the total production capacity.
At present, the domestic coated paper industry, the white cardboard industry and the newsprint industry have basically been integrated. The equipment of these three major industries is basically the most advanced equipment in the world. Therefore, these three industries are basically not affected by the elimination of backward production capacity. According to the analysis of the list of eliminated areas and published companies, the three major industries that benefited the most were the cardboard corrugated paper, household paper and cultural paper.
According to the analysis of Guojin Securities, due to the worse-than-expected demand in Europe and the United States and the impact of the decline in global commodity prices, the current possibility of rising wood pulp prices is small, and the main factors restricting industry profitability are changing. With the increase in M&A activity among industries, the concentration of paper industry is expected to enter a period of rapid rise.