Retrospect and Prospect of China's Paper Industry
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First, the basic situation of the paper industry
According to the 2004 annual report released by the China Paper Association, 2004 was a year of rapid development of China's paper industry. The national paper and board production reached 49.5 million tons, and the consumption reached 54.39 million tons, an increase of 15.1% over 2003. And 13.2%, the per capita consumption of paper and cardboard increased by 5kg over the previous year. In 2005, it also grew at a faster rate.
In 2005, China's imports of commercial pulp and waste paper reached 7.59 million tons and 17 million tons respectively, ranking first in the world for pulp imports and waste paper imports for many years. Imports of paper and cardboard have been hovering at 6 million tons since 1999 and fell to 5.27 million tons in 2005. With the continuous improvement of China's paper industry technology and equipment, China's import demand for paper and paperboard will decline, especially for the net import volume, that is, the difference between the import volume and the export volume will continue to decrease. Although the Chinese government has cancelled export tax rebates on paper and cardboard since 2003, it has not had a significant impact on paper and cardboard exports.
Second, the main trend of China's paper industry
1. Production capacity began to concentrate, and the proportion of high-end products increased year by year.
In the past, for a long period of time, China's paper industry has been dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises, with small production capacity and low level, which has led to low concentration of products. After several years of rapid development, the production capacity and concentration of many varieties are increasing year by year, which is worthy of attention and exciting. The increase in concentration is accompanied by an increase in the level of technical equipment, which is conducive to improving the competitiveness of production companies in the international market.
Taking the production of coated paper as an example, as early as the late 1980s and early 1990s, during the period of rapid growth of the domestic coated paper market, a large number of domestically produced small coating machines were formed. It reached 1.5 million tons during the highest period. However, due to the low level of technical equipment, the number of manufacturers reached more than 100, the concentration of production is low, and the quality grade of products can not meet the needs of market growth, which directly led to the heavy consumption of coated paper in China after the mid-1990s. situation. Until the end of the 1990s, the implementation of several imported projects led by Quanlin Paper and other industries in China brought new vitality to the market of coated paper in China. After several years of efforts, China has now re-established the international level of coated paper production capacity, not only production technology and equipment first-class, but also the concentration of production is high, with strong market competitiveness. At present, the main coated paper manufacturers are: Jindong Paper (nearly 2 million tons) and Shouguang Chenming (25)
10,000 tons), Suzhou Zixing (S T O R AENSO) (200,000 tons), Mudanjiang Daewoo (200,000 tons), Tranlin Paper (200,000 tons), Sun Paper (250,000 tons) and so on. Basically formed a pattern of oligopoly, or a full competition situation of limited manufacturers.
2. Changes in China's export market have brought new opportunities and challenges to packaging products
In the past quite a long period of time, China's main driving force in the consumption of paper and paperboard came from the growth of export packaging, which made China's products based on coated white paperboard have made great progress. As China's merchandise export growth mode has changed from quantity to quality, the growth rate of packaging paperboard has declined, and quality requirements have begun to increase. The market has been opened for coating white cardboard and coated cattle cardboard. Therefore, many small coated white paperboard manufacturers in China have entered a transition period. If they cannot adapt to the market demand as soon as possible, they may be abandoned by the market. At present, this relatively dispersed production capacity will continue to be concentrated, forming a number of new large-scale manufacturers, and in the near future, there will be more than a dozen large manufacturers to oligopolistic market. In particular, the current major manufacturers of coated white cardboard are: Bohui Paper (400,000 tons), Shouguang Chenming (400,000 tons), Sun Paper (400,000 tons), Ningbo Zhonghua (400,000 tons), Hongta Renheng (250,000 tons), Rizhao Senbo (200,000 tons) and Guangdong Foshan Huafeng, Henan Fuyang and Ningxia Meili.
3. Domestic consumption has begun to have an impact on the market. The rapid growth of the printing paper market is different from that of packaging paper. China's printing paper has grown steadily for a long period of time. With the continuous maturity of the domestic market and the publishing market. The continuous progress of the process, China's demand for printing and writing paper began to accelerate. When Jindong Paper started testing the machine three years ago, the paper machines of the two copper-type base papers all produced offset paper. As a result, the market for printing and writing paper was oversupply, and many small factories should remember the difficult market at that time. However, since the two coating machines matched in 2001 have been put into production, due to the reduction in the supply of high-grade offset paper, the returns of manufacturers producing high-grade offset paper have increased greatly in the market. How many manufacturers have brought challenges and opportunities to this excess? With the development of China's economy and the deepening of cultural market reform, China has ushered in a new era of rapid development of printing and publishing. At the same time, colleagues in China's paper industry have also seen the huge potential of this market. Many large-scale projects are in the preparatory stage. It is hoped that in the near future, China's printing and writing papers will also be able to significantly improve the level of technical equipment and products, and reach international standards as soon as possible and participate in international competition. Under the guidance of the current fiber material policy for the development of forestry-paper integration, scientific use of straw pulp, and increased waste paper recycling, we have taken advantage of our own advantages, scientifically and rationally used straw pulp, and printed annual printing fiber in China. The technological advantages and the promotion of environmentally friendly products will give China's paper industry a new image, reposition the importance of China's non-timber fiber resources, and make new contributions to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting forest resources.
Third, the development prospects of China's paper industry
The consumption of paper and paperboard in China will maintain rapid growth, and the growth rate of paper and paperboard consumption in China has been higher than the growth rate of GDP in the past few years. According to the existing statistical data regression analysis, in the past a long period of time, China's per capita paper consumption is proportional to per capita GDP. For every 1,000 yuan increase in per capita GDP, per capita paper will increase by more than 3kg. This trend will basically be maintained for some time to come, but any growth curve should be a curve that tends to be saturated, so that it can be predicted that when China's per capita GDP is high to a certain level, the per capita paper growth The speed will slow down.
At present, China is in the period of rapid development of the national economy. In 2004, the gross national product has reached 1.6 trillion US dollars, and the per capita level of 1,300 US dollars, according to the development goals set by the Fifth Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee, to 2010. Domestic GDP will double from 2000. By 2020, the total GDP will reach 4 trillion US dollars, and the per capita will reach more than 3,000 US dollars. At present, the relevant departments are formulating the “Eleventh Five-Year” development plan for the paper industry. It is expected that the market prospects for paper and paperboard in China will be broad, and the consumption of paper and paperboard will grow in line with the national economy. In 2005, the consumption reached 58 million tons. In 2010, it will reach 76 million tons. By 2020, consumption will exceed 100 million tons. By then, China will become the world's three major consumer markets for paper and cardboard together with the United States and Europe. The rapid rise of China's economy has driven the growth of China's paper and paperboard consumption, while also constantly changing the pattern of world cardboard consumption. Five years ago, there were only two major paper and paperboard consumer markets in the world. In the United States and Europe, they consumed one-third of the world's paper and cardboard, respectively, and all other countries and regions in the world, including Japan and China. The sum of consumption is only 1/3. In recent years, China's economic rise has changed the consumption pattern of paper and paperboard in the world. According to Paperloon, global paper and paperboard consumption in 2004 was about 360 million tons, of which US consumption was about 90 million tons. European consumption is at 9000
More than 10,000 tons, the sum of consumption between China and Japan is close to 90 million tons. Therefore, the current basic consumption pattern is 1/4 in the US, 1/4 in Europe, 1/4 in China and Japan, and 1/4 in all other countries and regions in the world. It is expected that by 2020, the consumption pattern of paper and cardboard will be adopted. It will be 1/4 of the consumption in the US, Europe and China, and 1/4 in all other countries and regions in the world. Of course, the consumption of paper and paperboard referred to herein refers to the initial consumption of paper and paperboard into packaging or printed matter, not the final consumption of the goods.
Fourth, the advantages of China's paper industry
First of all, the biggest advantage of China's paper industry is the huge domestic consumer market, and this market has good growth performance. The rapid growth of China's paper and paperboard consumer market is mainly driven by the sustained and rapid growth of the Chinese economy. The three major carriages of China's rapid economic growth are exports, investment and consumption. The increase in consumption levels will undoubtedly promote the consumption of paper and paperboard, and more importantly, the export growth of a large number of consumer goods will further promote the rapid growth of the paper and paperboard market.
Recently, many foreign colleagues have expressed great concern about the growth rate of investment in China over the growth rate of consumption. I am worried that these new production capacity in China will have an impact on the regional and even international paper and paperboard markets. These concerns are understandable. However, to analyze the current situation in China, this kind of worry is unnecessary. Because the increase in new capacity in China has to meet new demands, it will largely compensate for the market gap caused by the withdrawal of backward production capacity. With the large-scale adoption of new, efficient and environmentally friendly technical equipment in China's new-type enterprises, it will inevitably force backward production capacity to exit the market through market means in terms of energy conservation, environmental improvement and economic efficiency. This exit mechanism is far more effective than government directives. Of course, foreign friends are worried that it is not a Chinese company but an overseas company that will withdraw one day. This may not happen in the near future, because China still has nearly 2/3 of its production capacity is quite backward technology. Provided by the device.
In addition to its market advantages, China still has considerable advantages in terms of human resources. The pulp and paper industry is different from the general traditional manufacturing industry, and the requirements for human resources are relatively high. Although some simple manufacturing industries have problems of transferring to other less developed countries, for the pulp and paper industry, this possibility Very small. Because pulp and paper needs a high-quality workforce, China currently has the world's largest colleges and universities with pulp and paper disciplines, and it sends thousands of talents to the industry every year. The rise in energy prices in recent years has also prompted companies to increase investment in energy conservation and consumption reduction, and constantly improve their competitiveness. China also has considerable competitive advantages in other auxiliary raw materials for papermaking.
V. Main problems currently facing the Chinese paper industry
First, the Chinese paper industry is facing the problem of insufficient supply of fiber raw materials. In recent years, the proportion of imported fiber raw materials has been continuously increasing, and the import dependence of fiber raw materials has been continuously increasing, which is close to 50%! In 2005, 17 million tons of waste paper were imported and 7.57 million tons of imported paper pulp. Although the commissioning of nearly one million tons of pulp mills in Jinhai last year will improve the supply of pulp within Jinguang Group, the continuous launch of new papermaking projects will make the growth of pulp imports not weaken in the near future.
For imported commodity pulp, the international market can still be more optimistic in the near future, but in the long run, the pressure is great, and the safety of raw materials in the industry is greatly challenged. From the overall international situation, the total global production of paper and paperboard in 2004 was 360 million tons, and the production of primary pulp was 1.8 tons. That is to say, in the world, every ton of paper and paperboard produced will consume 500kg of virgin pulp, and the rest will be waste paper fibers and accessories. If the production of paper and paperboard in China reaches 75 million tons by 2010, 37.5 million tons of virgin pulp will be needed. At present, China's actual pulp production is only over 14 million tons. Assuming that China can build several large pulp mills by then, and the production capacity will increase by 20 million tons, it will still need to import 17.5 million tons! What's more, raising our pulp production by 6 million tons within five years is a very difficult task. In 2004, the global net export volume of commercial pulp remained at around 25 million tons, and China imported 7.32 million tons, slightly less than 1/3. Although there are about 5 million tons of new production capacity in South America in recent years, it still cannot. Meet the demand of 10 million tons in China. By then, the total amount of pulp imported by China will reach or exceed 50% of the total net export of pulp!
Therefore, China must develop forestry-paper integration as much as possible, strengthen waste paper recycling and scientifically and rationally utilize non-timber resources. As for waste paper, there are many criticisms at present. Because of the large amount of imported waste paper in China, we criticize China for not paying attention to the recycling of waste paper. But I always think that this criticism is not fair enough. The recovery rate of waste paper is calculated by the ratio of the amount of domestic recycled waste paper to the consumption of paper and paperboard. The consumption of paper and paperboard here is not the final consumption, especially for packaging paper and paperboard. And even more so. China is currently the world's leading exporter of consumer goods. A large number of consumer goods are packaged in paper. These packaging papers are shipped to developed countries along with the goods. These papers are impossible in China. Recycled.
Therefore, although China's current recovery rate is only about 30%, the actual recovery rate is much higher. On the other hand, China's waste paper utilization rate is close to 60%, ranking first among the major paper and board producers, much higher than developed countries, and much higher than the world average. This also shows that China's paper industry has made tremendous contributions to protecting the environment and conserving fiber resources.
Scientific and rational use of non-wood fiber resources is also a basic national policy for the development of the paper industry in China. In this regard, people should pay attention to the treatment of some new technologies with a basic scientific attitude. China's non-wood fiber pulping and papermaking technology ranks among the world's leading. For decades, China's science and technology workers have made outstanding contributions to the scientific and rational use of non-wood fiber raw materials. Because some small pulp and paper enterprises have not carried out wastewater treatment in order to save investment or due to small scale, etc., it has caused serious environmental pollution, and even seriously damaged the review and prospect of China's paper industry in the public. Image. At present, there are many so-called "new technologies, new processes" that are constantly being reported, but as long as investors in the industry take a scientific attitude, they will protect themselves well. Because no matter what invention and creation can not violate the law of material immortality, but also understand what is a pollutant. As long as these two aspects are clarified, they will not be deceived by any pseudo-scientific propaganda. Similarly, any invention that avoids these two problems is impossible.
At present, the second problem in the paper industry is the problem of structural overcapacity of certain products. The so-called structural excess here refers to the overcapacity of some varieties of low-end products, and the supply of high-end products from insufficient to able to meet the market transition. This is a process of change, which is the process by which advanced production capacity replaces backward production capacity. Of course, in this process, because the backward production capacity will not be willing to voluntarily withdraw from the market, it will inevitably create price confusion in the market, but the market pressure will eventually ruthlessly eliminate the backward production capacity. As a result, the concentration of certain products will be improved, and the level of technology and equipment will be transformed to meet and catch up with the world's advanced level and enhance international competitiveness. The varieties that have achieved this change are coated paper and coated white cardboard. Newsprint and coated white paperboard are undergoing this change, and we are also looking forward to the early arrival of uncoated printed writing paper.
The third problem in the paper industry is the environmental pollution of small businesses. The solution to this problem is closely related to the second question above. Small enterprises are backward in equipment, low in technology, regardless of the environment, relying on sacrificing the environment to obtain profits. On the surface, however, they are able to solve some employment problems for the local people. Some good people will be used by them. On the one hand, the so-called new inventions will emerge one after another, and on the other hand, the environmental pollution will be indulged. This has seriously damaged the interests of the national people and the interests of the industry. These companies will soon be replaced by advanced production capacity, but they will seriously disrupt the market before exiting the market. I believe that to fundamentally solve the problem of environmental pollution in small factories, it is necessary to replace it with market means by using advanced production capacity.
All in all, there are huge potentials and opportunities for the development of China's paper industry. At the same time, the problem of fiber raw materials is an unavoidable challenge, and the pollution problem of small factories can only be solved by means of development and means of change. Science and technology are a key tool in this process of change. Enterprises should pay attention to the modernization of technical equipment, and at the same time strengthen the research of technology and talents, so that they can maintain an undefeated position in the process of change.