Pulp prices continue to rise in the next two years
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International pulp prices will continue to rise in the next two years, and the high price of pulp prices may appear in the third quarter of 2012. The core lies in the relationship between supply and demand. The economic crisis has delayed the release of some new capacity, and commercial pulp has been released very little in 2011-2012. With the increase of domestic demand and the recovery of overseas markets, the contradiction between supply and demand will reappear. For the short-term trend of pulp prices, supplier inventory is a major influencing factor. At present, the continuous low inventory of softwood pulp leads to an increase in prices, while the hardwood pulp is released due to the high capacity of domestic Asia-Pacific Semper’s capacity after September 2010. At present, the digested inventories of this capacity have begun to decline.
NBSK, USA: Due to the relative balance of the paper and board market, the US pulp market remains stable despite the uncertainties in the world economy and the end use of printed writing paper. The growth of BSKP prices in Asian markets also supports the North American pulp market. Pulp shipments to the North American market indicate that the paper market is weak this week, as reported by the PPPC (Pulp and Paper Products Council), which fell 8.7% compared to January 2010, compared to December 2010. 100,000 tons. Despite the decline in shipments, the latest contract transaction price has remained unchanged.
European NBSK: After the implementation of the price increase in December, the inventory of European ports declined in January. The market for coniferous pulp is still tight. Increasing amounts of BSKP are increasingly being used as replacements for less soluble dissolving pulp. The Pulp and Paper Products Council's data on pulp market deliveries and producer stocks gives a confusing signal. Shipments increased by 2.8% compared to January 2010, but the data will fall after removing 31% of China. Producer inventory rose by 3 days, reaching an average of 33 days. Seasonal adjustment factors, the data has no impact. More and more producers have announced price increases since March 1, with most of the increase of $30/ton.
European BHKP: The European BHKP market is still relatively stable in February, and the worst will be the same as the softwood market. The reduction in demand for wood-free pulp paper is complemented by the adequacy of tissue paper and wrapping paper. Shipments fell by 0.3% compared to January 2010. Producer inventory rose by 3 days, with seasonal factors adjusted for 2 days.
China BHKP: China's pulp market this year has not fallen as demand for the Spring Festival in previous years, and the demand for paper raw materials has increased sharply due to the increase in past and upcoming paper production capacity. The increase in local and Indonesian BHKP capacity will complement this supply. The market for coniferous pulp remained stable. The pressure on prices in February was relatively high, and NBSPL had reached 890-900 USD/ton. With the increase in the production of US dollar textile fiber, the total output will decline. In terms of BHKP, regional competition has become fierce, and hardwood pulp, non-wood fiber and pulp imported from overseas have pressure to fall. The increasing gap between BSKP and BHKP will appear in the consumption structure. Most quotes range from $730 to $750/ton, with the most common offer being $750/ton.