Paper industry printing paper, various types of paper, the future growth rate is not the same
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The basic situation of various paper varieties in the domestic market: the growth rate of newsprint production has declined since 2004, currently CR8 is slightly more than 60%; the annual average growth rate of uncoated printed writing paper from 2001 to 2010 is 11.5%, and CR10 is about 32%; The annual average growth rate of coated paper in 2001-2010 is 18.4%, CR10 is greater than 90%; the average annual growth rate of white cardboard in 2001-2010 is 15.7%, CR8 is slightly more than 40%; the annual output of cardboard paper is increasing from 2001 to 2010. The rate is 16.7% and CR10 is about 50%. From 2001 to 2010, the average annual growth rate of tissue paper production is 9.5%, and CR4 is about 20%.
The future growth rate of various types of paper: news paper and printed writing paper are affected by new media. The per capita consumption of developed countries cannot be used as a reference for the upper limit of China's demand. We are cautious about the development of newsprint. Coated printing and writing paper still has a relatively large development space, and the per capita consumption in developed countries is more than ten times that of China. The situation of non-coated printing writing paper is more complicated, and the upper limit is difficult to estimate. However, due to the development of education, it will increase by about 4% in the next five years; in the next five to ten years, the growth rate will be around 3%. Corrugated and cardboard paper are used for packaging, and the growth rate in the next decade will be in line with GDP. In the next five years, it will be higher than GDP growth. The development space of high-grade packaging paper will be broader and the growth rate will be faster. The per capita consumption of tissue paper is very related to per capita GDP, so the per capita consumption in developed countries gives a good reference.
The price trend of fiber raw materials: The price of China's fiber raw materials is determined by the international market, and various fiber raw materials have the same characteristics of rising and falling. Data analysis shows that fluctuations in oil prices can affect pulp prices in half a year.
In 2011, the utilization rate of paper capacity was different, and the gross profit margin was very different: newsprint, capacity utilization rate was 85.2%, and the weighted average gross profit margin was about 11%. Coated paper, the capacity utilization rate is 81.7%, and the weighted average gross profit margin is about 16%. Uncoated printing paper, capacity utilization rate of 88.5%, weighted average gross profit margin of about 14%. Box cardboard, capacity utilization rate of 90.5%, weighted average gross profit margin of about 17%. White cardboard, capacity utilization is slightly higher than 93%, and the weighted average gross profit margin is about 22%.