Newsprint has soared 125% in half a year. Do you dare to invest?
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Recently, the prices of all kinds of papers have been “continuously rising”, why is the price of paper rising? Can it last? What investment opportunities will there be?
First, the paper price continues to rise or attract investment
Since the second half of 2016, paper has entered a price increase cycle. In recent days, the gains have become even more fierce. There have been 60 paper mills in the country soaring. Even the price of waste paper has exceeded 2,200 yuan / ton. It must be demon to be abnormal. What causes such a rapid increase?
It is not difficult to see that the paper industry is a high-energy, high-pollution industry, and it also has a strong periodicity. The attributes determine the performance of the industry in the stock market, and the reasons for the increase are obvious:
1. The coming season is coming
In the summer, the demand for consumer goods such as downstream drinks has increased significantly, and the packaging paper is about to enter the seasonal demand season. When it comes to wrapping paper, what has to be said is the troika that pulls the demand for wrapping paper: express, export and consumption. The express delivery industry continued to grow at a high speed, exports turned warmer, and consumption growth tends to be stable. From this point of view, the troika is rushing and the demand for packaging paper is strong.
2. Environmental pressure, capacity elimination
As a highly polluting and energy-intensive industry, the paper industry is the largest industry for COD (chemical oxygen demand) emissions and the fourth largest industry for ammonia nitrogen. Under the background of stricter environmental protection policies, faced with the introduction of policies such as “one license” management and total amount control of the pollutant discharge permit system, small paper enterprises were restricted, and large paper enterprises enjoyed preferential sewage disposal.
In addition, high energy consumption is also an important factor limiting the expansion of paper enterprises. The approval of self-provided power plants in areas with strong consumption is limited, and the source of power expansion in the industry is restrained. In turn, some of the production capacity was eliminated, resulting in a shortage of supply.
3. Import restrictions
From the perspective of the industrial chain, import policies restrict the development of the paper industry. The upstream of the paper industry is raw wood pulp and waste paper. The growth rate of waste paper imports slows down. The proportion of imported waste paper pulp has also dropped from 46.4% in 2006 to 36.5% in 2016. It can be seen that long-term dependence on imported waste paper, Imports have peaked.
Recently, the management has introduced a quota for imported waste paper, prohibiting the import of special waste paper, and other waste papers are also limited. Under this circumstance, domestic waste paper has become a tight item, and the price is changing with each passing day. Then it is fed back to the finished paper, and it is inevitable that the paper will “sound up”. The question is coming, can such a rise continue?
Second, the paper on the school "do not feel shallow"
The price of paper can of course still rise! Why do you say that?
The market environment has not changed, and the relationship between supply and demand has not changed. It has already been mentioned just now: the impact of the de-capacity policy in the paper industry is still going on, the elimination of production capacity has promoted the prosperity of the industry; the demand for packaging paper is strong, and it is still spreading to the tissue paper field; the impact of import policy cannot be eliminated in the short term, waste paper The demand is expected to continue.
In addition, the “plastic limit order” is expected to be upgraded. As the best substitute, the prosperity of the packaging paper field is expected to increase. Of course, in the field of wrapping paper, there are many areas of papermaking, such as cultural paper, household paper and specialty paper.
Compared with wrapping paper, the market for cultural paper and household paper is much lighter, especially in the field of cultural paper. Subject to the growth of paperless, the growth rate of the downstream printing industry of cultural paper has been as low as freezing point, hitting a historical low of 4.5%. It can be seen that the situation in the cultural paper field has to be distinguished. For example, newsprint prices have risen by 125% in half a year. Although the paper field is not as hot as the packaging paper, the price is also rising. Especially after the introduction of the "second child policy", the related hygiene paper and diaper field are constantly rising.
Of course, the paper industry is not a big one, and the core problem of the papermaking process has not been solved. Papermaking is one of the four inventions in China, but the leading technology of modern papermaking is not in China, and papermaking equipment is mainly imported. On the other hand, the scheduling plan of imported equipment companies can help predict the future production capacity. Once the capacity is too large, it means that the overall industry boom will usher in an inflection point.
Third, invest in "paper" how to do this
Although the core technology of the paper industry has not made a breakthrough, but it does not affect the investment in the paper industry, how should it be invested? You can grasp the two dimensions of the policy and the degree of prosperity. You can focus on two directions:
1. In the policy environment of environmental protection policy and self-sufficient power plant, the paper industry segmentation leader is conducive to the development of large paper enterprises, while restricting the expansion of small-capacity enterprises, as well as industry consolidation expectations, therefore, it is conducive to the development of leading enterprises. .
2. The field of packaging paper Regardless of the degree of prosperity and development potential, the demand for packaging paper is strong, and enterprises in the field will benefit first.