Global pulp supply and demand remains tight
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Goldman Sachs released a report on November 24th that global pulp stocks were flat at a monthly rate, still 33 days below normal. The Board of Pulp and Paper Products announced the global pulp data for October 2009 on November 24. Inventories remained unchanged from September at 26 days, with an annual drop of 21 days and a 7-day drop from the historical average of 33 days. According to forecasts, pulp production in the global market reached 3.5 million tons in October, increasing by 1.7% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year. Global pulp stocks are forecast at 3.1 million tons, which is the lowest level since May 2007 and is 800,000 tons lower than normal (assuming 33 days of pulp shipments are currently shipped).
Global pulp shipments fell 1.3% month-on-month, but increased 9.6% year-on-year. Since 2009, pulp shipments have returned to the level before the crisis, which was 3,401,800 tons, an increase of 1.8% and 0.7% respectively over the same period in 2007 and 2008. The largest pulp consumer market continues to show signs of recovery. Shipment shipments to Western Europe increased by 2.5% month-on-month and 18.1% from the bottom of January 2009. Shipments to China are still strong, with monthly rates being flat but doubling the annual rate. Hardwood pulp shipments fell 5.1% month-on-month, but the annual rate increased by 15.6%. For softwood pulp, shipments increased by 2.4% month-on-month and 2.2% year-on-year.
The supply and demand momentum in the international market will show that pulp prices will rise further in the coming months, due to seasonal factors, the most likely in the first quarter of 2010. The main driving force for further increase in pulp prices is that the published stocks continue to be at historically low levels; the spread between paper and pulp continues to be above average; China's pulp demand remains high; the US dollar remains weak; and pulp demand in large markets Will continue to recover. According to the UIPULP, the average pulp consumption of European papermakers in September and October 2009 was 10% higher than the average price in January and August 2009.

