Global printing industry development trend forecast for the year of 2 years
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In 2008, the global printing industry's profits have shrunk overall, and the printing industry in 2009 will face more challenges. Under the influence of many uncertain factors, every step of the printing owner's investment plan will be more cautious and closer to the market. Over the years, the world has been in a three-pronged position, with the United States, Europe and Asia each accounting for about a third of the market. Specifically, in the total value of $610 billion, North America, Europe, and Asia accounted for 32%, 32%, and 28%, respectively, and the rest of the world accounted for only 8%. Despite this, some experts predict that by 2011, the whole will move eastward, the market share of North America and Europe will fall to 28% and 31% respectively, and the market share of Asia and other regions will rise to 30% respectively. And 11%, and the total value will also exceed 720 billion US dollars.
In 2008, the financial crisis originating from the United States hit the world, rising raw material prices, rising labor costs, declining market purchasing power, and frustration in export business. Faced with the severe macroeconomic situation, China has continuously introduced various favorable policies to help enterprises cope with the crisis. Nine of the policies implemented in 2009 directly benefited the printing industry. Moreover, in 2009, China still imposed lower tariffs on imported printing equipment. This series of measures introduced by the state has a positive effect on the development of the printing industry.
In 2009, the prosperity of papermaking enterprises rebounded rapidly. Paper prices have accelerated since the start of the rise in May. As of the recent price increase, the price of coated paper and white cardboard has increased by more than 1,000 yuan from the low point, the double-plastic writing paper has risen more than 300 yuan, and the news paper and boxboard corrugated paper have risen more than 200 yuan. In July, the profitability of some paper grades (copper paper, white cardboard and double-adhesive paper) has reached a historically good level, and the gross profit margin has returned to pre-crisis levels. Coated paper and white cardboard have a net profit of 500-600 yuan, double-bonded writing paper 300-400 yuan, newsprint and boxboard corrugated paper 100-200 yuan.
At present, the company's paper machines are fully produced, production and sales are balanced, and inventory levels are generally between one week and 20 days, which is a significant improvement over the previous one-and-a-half-month inventory. The price of pulp is expected to increase by 10-15% by the end of the year. However, the low-priced pulp of the listed companies can be used until October-November, so the enterprises in the third quarter are “low-priced pulp, high-priced paper”. Downstream demand in the paper industry has recovered significantly, and domestic demand for terminals has improved and channel replenishment has been a factor in supporting increased paper demand and rising paper prices. In addition, the increase in the export of coated paper has also increased the domestic supply shortage of the paper. The profitability of major listed companies in July exceeded market expectations, and the single-quarter profitability in the third quarter is expected to reach a historically high level. In the fourth quarter, the price of pulp will continue to rise, but the cost of the company's own pulp is locked, which can offset some of the cost increase. The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for paper, and paper prices are expected to rise further.
According to the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", by the end of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, the total industrial output value of China's printing industry is expected to reach about 440 billion yuan, accounting for 2.5% of the gross national product; printing production and processing capacity will enter the forefront of the world. It is estimated that by 2010, the overall market growth rate of print products worldwide will be 3% to 4%, and the printing industry is facing increasing competition and pressure. In 2010, digital printing will increase from the current 4% share to 14%, of which inkjet technology will account for half, and by 2015 global digital printing output will reach 124.8 billion euros; by 2010, The overall growth rate of printed matter will be between 3% and 4%.
With the development of China's economy and the integration with the international economy, the pace of international capital entering the printing industry in China has accelerated. By 2020, about half of the world's prints will be produced on digital presses. Variable data printing will be the main driver of the industry. In the next decade, ink-based will give up some of its own market to numbers, but the numbers will never replace lithography. A series of figures indicate that the development prospects of China's printing industry are promising.