Four factors affecting the development of the paper industry
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The paper industry is an important basic raw material industry closely related to the development of the national economy and social undertakings. The consumption level of paper and paper is a measure of the level of modernization and civilization of a country. At present, the development of China's paper industry is mainly affected by factors such as policy, environment, market and technology.
The paper industry is an important basic raw material industry closely related to the development of the national economy and social undertakings. The consumption level of paper and paper is a measure of the level of modernization and civilization of a country. About 80% of our paper products are used for production and 20% for domestic consumption. The paper industry has a relatively high degree of relevance, involving forestry, agriculture, machinery manufacturing, thermal power, and other industries, and has a certain pulling effect on the upstream industry.
At present, the development of China's paper industry is mainly affected by factors such as policy, environment, market and technology.
I. Policy factors
Since 2007, the three policies of “energy conservation and environmental protection” policy, “paper industry policy” and the new “water pollutant discharge standard for pulp and paper industry” have been clearly defined:
1. A large number of outdated production capacity (small enterprises below 50,000 tons);
2. Strictly limit the total new capacity of the paper industry in the future and the scale of the single machine (the medium-sized enterprises of 50,000-100,000 tons are restricted by the access conditions of the Policy);
3. Implement new water pollutant emission limits to increase paper industry environmental protection investment, thus enabling a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises to withdraw from the market.
The paper industry fully benefited from the above policies, reaching the industry's profit high point in the second quarter of 2008, and hit the crisis in the fourth quarter of 2008. In 2009, it benefited from the government's timely economic stimulus policy and industrial revitalization plan, and gradually recovered in 2009. Quarterly earnings reached a stage high.
Continue to strictly implement these policies will curb the growth of total supply of paper products and have a positive impact on the supply and demand relationship of the industry, thus maintaining and expected to improve the profitability of the industry. Large-scale high-quality paper enterprises have the capital advantages and policy inclinations for capacity expansion, and will fully benefit from the shift in demand caused by the shutdown of backward production capacity.
Second, environmental factors
The Chinese paper industry is subject to the impact of the international economic environment.
China is a country with a lack of forest resources. The highest proportion of materials imports account for 60%-70%. The leading papermaking enterprises in China are basically listed companies. The paper products produced by enterprises are also exported. The paper industry has already The international market has a deeper connection, so the Chinese paper industry bears the brunt of the 2008 economic crisis.
The upstream industry raw wood pulp supply is mainly in Canada, Chile, Brazil and Northern Europe. This is a forest-rich country, and Canada is a major importer of raw wood pulp in China's paper industry. Basically, several ports have to be shipped by sea, and the logistics cost is high. At the same time, they are also affected by the policies and environment of these countries. The cost of raw materials has always been high.
The accelerated appreciation of the renminbi is facing a double-sided impact on the paper industry. On the one hand, China's raw materials are still very dependent on imports. The import dependence of waste paper is 52%, and the dependence of wood pulp imports is close to 60. %, for the paper industry where raw material costs account for 60% of the total cost. Accelerating the appreciation of the renminbi will help reduce the price of imported raw materials and increase the profitability of domestic enterprises. However, on the other hand, with the gradual reduction of import tariffs in the wood and paper industry, the price of imported paper products will be further reduced. The prohibition of foreign paper products will have a certain impact on the domestic paper products market, and the appreciation of the renminbi The wine industry is not conducive to my export of finished paper.