Deep pursuit: set aside the "fog" of printing industry transformation
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At present, China's printing industry is in a critical period of transformation and upgrading. Under the influence of complex internal and external factors, the development of the printing industry presents some seemingly complicated and even contradictory phenomena. How to correctly understand these phenomena and hide them later The background of the times is of great significance for printing companies to make correct strategic choices during the industrial transformation period.
Contradiction 1: The macroeconomic situation of the industry: continuous growth Steady upwards VS corporate micro-ecology: increasingly difficult to develop
Since the reform and opening up, China's printing industry has entered the golden development period of more than 30 years along with the entire national economy. The number of enterprises and the total industrial output have achieved “frog leap” growth. However, in recent years, especially since 2005, with the changes in the market situation, the printing industry continues to maintain rapid growth in the total output value, while the micro-ecology of enterprises has shown another form, and more and more enterprises are beginning to Feel the competitive pressure of insufficient orders, falling wages, rising costs and lower profit margins. This constitutes the first contradiction in the development of the printing industry in recent years.
Regarding the total output value of the printing industry, China has two statistical calibers, one from the China Printing and Equipment Industry Association and the other from the General Administration of Press and Publication. No matter which statistical calibre shows, China's printing industry has maintained a steady growth and steady upward development during the 11th Five-Year Plan period.
According to statistics from the China Printing and Equipment Industry Association, the total output value of China's printing industry during the 11th Five-Year Plan period increased from 380 billion yuan in 2006 to 576 billion yuan in 2010, an increase of 51.6%, with an average annual growth rate of about 11%. %. During this period, not only did the total volume of the industry maintain a rapid upward trend, but the major market segments of the printing industry, such as book printing, newspaper printing, and packaging printing, also performed well.
Affected by the development of new media, many people in the industry believe that the printing market for newspapers and periodicals will gradually shrink. The development of foreign printing market has basically confirmed this point of view. However, from the statistical data, the printing of newspapers and periodicals in China is lower than that in the printing industry. The overall growth rate, but there is still a large room for upward development. The data from the China Printing and Equipment Industry Association also showed that the output value of China's books and periodicals during the 11th Five-Year Plan period increased from 81 billion yuan in 2006 to 101 billion yuan in 2010, an increase of 24.7%, with an average annual growth rate of about 6. %; newspaper printing output increased from 52.5 billion yuan in 2006 to 60 billion yuan in 2010, an increase of 14.3%, with an average annual growth rate of about 3.5%. Compared with newspaper printing, the development of book printing in China has become more stable. The “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” has maintained positive growth during the years, and newspaper printing has experienced negative growth in 2009 due to the decline in advertising volume during the economic crisis, but this situation is In 2010, it was reversed.
Packaging and printing is considered to be one of the most promising development markets in the printing industry, which is also reflected in the statistics. During the "11th Five-Year Plan" period, China's packaging and printing output value increased from 123.5 billion yuan in 2006 to 200 billion yuan in 2010, an increase of 53.8%, slightly higher than the overall growth rate of the printing industry.
The above is the statistical data of China Printing and Equipment Industry Association. According to another statistical scale, the growth rate of China's printing industry is even more impressive. According to the data released by the General Administration of Press and Publication, in 2010, the total output value of China's printing industry reached 770 billion yuan, an increase of 133% over 2005. In the same period, the number of printing enterprises in China only increased by about 5%, which means that the annual output value of China's printing enterprises increased by about 126% on average.
In the case that the number of enterprises is basically stable, the total volume of the printing industry market is rapidly rising. It is common sense that the days of enterprises should be very good, but in recent years, the industrial form reflected from the micro-feelings of entrepreneurs is another kind of “view”. In summary, it can be summarized as follows.
Insufficient order. A printing entrepreneur in Shenzhen said that in the Bagualing area where printing companies are concentrated recently, many enterprises are falling into the “order shortage”, and the operating rate is only about 50%. According to industry insiders, the operating rate of some book printing companies As low as 40%; affected by the downturn in the European and American markets, some of Fujian's corporate orders for export goods fell more than 1/3.
The price of raw materials has increased. From the end of 2010 to the beginning of 2011, many entrepreneurs complained that the prices of various materials have risen rapidly, which has brought greater cost pressure to enterprises. In fact, as a whole, the prices of the main raw materials of printing companies are still at a relatively low historical level, especially paper and plates. Taking paper as an example, although the paper price in the first half of 2011 has increased significantly from the low point of 2009, it has been at a relatively low level since the long-term price trend in the past 10 years. The reason why printing companies feel the short-term rise in paper prices is that the cost shift in the printing industry is weak.
Employment dilemma. This is a big challenge for printing companies. In recent years, with the turning point of the “demographic dividend”, various industries, including the printing industry, are generally facing the problem of rising labor costs. A 2011 statistics shows that The labor cost of printing enterprises has increased by about 15% annually, which has caused great pressure on enterprises. Despite this, many printing companies still face the problem of shortage of front-line employees and excessive liquidity.
The profit margin has fallen. The rise in operating costs and the decline in wages caused by market competition have caused the profit margins of printing companies to enter a rapid “downward period”. Especially in the case of continuous industrial growth, “increasing production without increasing revenue” has become a common feature of many enterprises. For example, in Xinzhou Printing, Hongxing Printing and Xingguang Group, which are listed in Hong Kong, the turnover of the three companies in the fiscal year 2010-2011 was HK$570 million, HK$2.765 billion and HK$1.545 billion, respectively, up 9.8% year-on-year. %, 31%; profit was net profit of HK$16.316 million, HK$156 million and HK$25 million, respectively, down 32.7%, 6.1% and 39% respectively. All three companies have a considerable proportion of their business from overseas markets, which basically explains the situation of export-oriented printing companies. On the other hand, local companies, although slightly better, have also seen a downward trend in profit margins. Take Shanghai as an example. In the first five months of 2011, the sales value of 273 key printing enterprises in Shanghai was 16.614 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.25%; the total profit was 1.249 billion yuan, down 1.26% year-on-year. Some mainland-listed printing companies, such as Donggang, Zijiang and Hexing Packaging, experienced different declines in profit margins in 2010.
Contradiction 2: Enterprise micro-ecological difficulties VS investment enthusiasm is extremely high
The micro-ecology of printing enterprises is difficult, and the profit rate is declining. According to normal logical reasoning, under this situation, the optimal strategic choice of enterprises is undoubtedly to compress the front, tighten investment, and prepare for the winter, but in the past few years we actually saw It is the enthusiasm of investment companies for investment. This constitutes the second contradiction in the development of the printing industry in recent years.
Due to the objective gap between China's printing equipment manufacturing industry and the international advanced level, China's high-end printing equipment mainly relies on imports. According to the data provided by China Printing and Equipment Industry Association, during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, China’s printing equipment imports amounted to US$8.723 billion, with an annual average of US$1.745 billion, and in 2010 it reached a record US$2.295 billion. In the same period, China has imported 5,143 sheets of sheetfed offset presses, with an average annual output of 1,029 units, and in 2010 it reached 1,308 units. The data shows that China has become Heidelberg's largest single market in the world. In 2010-2011, it contributed about 4 billion yuan in sales, accounting for 16% of its global sales.
The 2nd Guangyin Exhibition held in Dongguan in April 2011, with a display area of 120,000 square meters and a flow of 170,000 person-times, became the second largest exhibition in the world after Drupa. According to the organizer The on-site order amount exceeded 5 billion yuan, and many international exhibitors such as Heidelberg, Manroland, KBA, Komori, and Hewlett-Packard all said that they had achieved more than expected results.
Deep pursuit: to open the "wave" behind
Why is China's printing industry presenting such a complicated situation? This requires a clear understanding of the background of the times we are in. A printing entrepreneur friend in Shenzhen recently asked me a question that reflected the changes in the external environment of the printing company. He said: "If the printing company is a fish, then where do we live? Poyang Lake, the Yangtze River, or the sea?" He further explained that in the past, rivers, rivers, lakes, and seas were rich in water and the environment was comfortable and could be fish. Provide good room for growth. But now Poyang Lake has suffered from a hundred years of drought, and the water has to be dried up; the Yangtze River has become more and more polluted in the rapid industrialization wave, and the water quality is not as good as before; only the sea has oil spills and pollution, but it is still vast due to the vast waters. Provide a good living space for fish.
This metaphor image illustrates the truth that no matter which market area the printing company is in, the external industrial environment is changing, so this is an era of change! On the whole, this change can be roughly summarized into the following four points.
First, the printing production capacity is from a shortage, balance to a transitional cycle of excess. In the early days of reform and opening up, the printing industry's production capacity was seriously insufficient, and it was difficult to meet the sharp market demand of relevant industries. This has become the starting point for the rapid development of the printing industry in the past 30 years. By the year 2000, with the increase in the number of printing companies and the improvement in the production efficiency of printing equipment, the relationship between supply and demand in the printing industry has gradually become more balanced. Since 2005, as more and more enterprises have completed the capital accumulation in the early stage of development, and joined the tide of technological transformation, the problem of partial overcapacity in printing production has begun to emerge.
Second, the printing industry has a transition from high profits to average social profits. Along with the changes in printing supply and demand, the average profit of the printing industry has also been drawn from a high to low "downline." Before the mid-1990s, due to insufficient production capacity, the profit margin of printing companies could be as high as 50% or more, which is a veritable “profiteering” industry. However, with the increase in production capacity, the printing industry quickly transitioned from a “profiteering” industry to a “small profit” industry. At present, the average profit rate of the industry by the General Administration of Press and Publication is about 7%, but a considerable part of the printing companies have a profit margin of only 3% to 5%, and some companies have even fallen into a "mire" of losses.
Third, the economic crisis in the era of globalization has brought uncertain prospects. The international financial crisis that began in 2008 has had a huge impact on the global economy. Although the global economy has shown a recovery with the successive introduction of large-scale economic stimulus policies, it has recently deteriorated and high with the European debt crisis. The challenge of inflation to emerging economies, the global economy is once again in uncertainty: consumer demand in developed countries continues to slump internationally, and the continued tightening of monetary policy in the country has made SMEs face unprecedented financing pressure. These will directly or indirectly affect the development of the printing industry.
Fourth, the “population dividend” turning point is our biggest challenge. Since the reform and opening up, the printing industry, like many other industries, has been based on rich and cheap labor resources. However, with the changes in the social environment and employment psychology, the “population dividend” turning point has arrived, and the “labor shortage” and rising labor costs will become the norm, which has proposed a business model reconstruction for various enterprises including printing companies. Requirements. If the pace of corporate change cannot keep up with the requirements of the times, elimination and exit will become an inevitable fate.
In the face of changing times, the only choice for printing companies is to change from time to time. Because we cannot change the environment, we only have to change ourselves. This actually raises the proposition of transformation and upgrading of the printing industry. For printing companies, in the face of complicated changes, before determining the direction of transformation and upgrading, it is necessary to make a simple distinction between changes: what are temporary difficulties and what are irreversible changes, which will mainly focus on The focus is on dealing with irreversible changes.
For printing companies, the orders caused by the global economic crisis, especially the shrinking of foreign orders, the financing difficulties caused by the tightening of monetary roots, etc., have brought great difficulties to enterprises and may last for some time, but these factors are all reversible. Periodic. In the face of these problems, more needs to be adhered to. In fact, the problem of rising raw material prices, which has caused many companies to have a headache, has eased since the second half of the year.
At present, printing companies need to pay more attention to the irreversible changes, such as: the continuous introduction of high-end printing equipment, resulting in changes in the competitive environment caused by the multiplication of production capacity; the decline in the attractiveness of the industry caused by the change in employment mentality of young people; the customers caused by the emergence of new technologies Demands tend to be high-end, diversified, and personalized; the impact of new media development on the long-term development of book printing. These factors, because they cannot be reversed, will directly affect the competitiveness and vitality of enterprises and need to be given full attention.