The paper packaging printing industry may be facing a deep crisis
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In 2018, the demand for paper packaging and printing industry is facing a deep crisis under the continuous pressure of the paper mills.
Crisis 1: Crazy rise and harm industry ecology
In the packaging and printing industry, there are first-, second-, and third-level factories. Three types of factories, due to the differentiation of customer needs, can still live in harmony during the period of stable raw materials. But when paper prices soared and forced customers to focus all their attention on procurement costs, the entire packaging printing industry chain was facing a collapse.
In recent years, the primary plant has begun to sneak downstream and directly participate in competition with secondary and tertiary plants. Due to the unparalleled raw material price advantage of the first-class factory, the secondary and tertiary plants that do some conventional packaging have almost no resistance except for the surrender. Some time ago, the quotation of the 智能龙 intelligent packaging during the trial run, the secondary cardboard industry in the Pearl River Delta almost sighed, showing its power.
The same is the secondary packaging, but due to the different volume, large companies have strong bargaining power, paper mills also have a number of periods, and the banking industry also strongly supports. Due to the low demand and limited funds, the medium-sized secondary plant raw materials are generally purchased first. When the terminal customers cannot pay cash, they face the risk of capital chain breakage.
As the most vulnerable three-level factory, when customers quit their pursuit of service because of cost pressure, they can only watch a large number of orders being taken away by the second-level and first-class factories.
A carton boss said: The relationship between supply and demand is not up to the price, and the buyer of a price hike can't wait for him to quote him eight times a day. He is good at comparison. Therefore, the negative impact of the price hike on SMEs is very large, especially the carton factories with insufficient funds will face the crisis of life and death.
A carton boss in Nantong, Jiangsu Province, has seen more profoundly. He said: I don’t like the unrestrained ups and downs. In the end, the entire industry chain is destroyed, and shuffling is self.
Crisis 2: violent ups and downs in the packaging and printing industry
In the past three years, paper prices have been like a "roller coaster." After the paper shortage in 2016, the cliffs fell in January and March 2017. In August, September and October, the cliff climbed again. In November, the price of paper fell by 2,000 yuan/ton. Take the paper giant Dongguan Xiaolong as an example. It raised prices four times in September this year and cut prices four times in November. The cumulative price cuts exceeded 2,000 yuan/ton. In December, Dongguan Xiaolong played a new price horn.
In the field of national waste, October 2017 is the most exaggerated trend in history. The national waste from 1000 to 3000 can actually fall by half in one day. The waste that was sent to the paper mill was cut down by the hour, and the paper factory's waywardness was evident.
In the white cardboard industry controlled by the top five manufacturers, when the price of paper continued to be stable and high, there was a wave of 2,000 yuan in July 2018.
According to the CCTV Financial Channel reported on March 24, 2017, in the round of the paper price slash in the month, the most affected is the paper mill downstream of the paper mill. Since the magnitude and speed of the price increase lag behind the rise of the base paper, the cost of the carton factory has been reversed. Now that the price of the base paper has plummeted, the carton manufacturers have carefully purchased the base paper, and they are all digesting the high-priced stocks in the previous period. The state of loss has not improved.
This kind of skyrocketing has greatly contributed to the speculative psychology of the industry. Some gambling companies have made a lot of money, and some companies that have not followed the rhythm of the ups and downs have to declare bankruptcy.
Crisis III: Paper packaging alternatives have been released
When the price increase of paper packaging and printing leads to losses for customers, especially the fast-moving consumer goods and e-commerce industry, they will increase the technology research and development and investment of alternative packaging products, and accelerate the pace of change packaging, once they complete the reform of alternative packaging. After taste of the low cost and convenience and efficiency brought about by the change of packaging, they will never turn over the carton again. At that time, the paper industry may cause overcapacity due to the decline in the amount of paper used.
In recent years, plastic packaging, recycling packaging and other alternative carton packaging is very hot, even in the traditional field of electronic packaging of paper packaging, customers have begun to act.
Hisense Kelon began to work on thin-cell carton and transparent carton-free packaging. Midea's company introduced a replacement for film packaging in the carton. Haier Group is also considering introducing new materials and new technologies to reduce the cost of carton packaging.
As for some small and medium-sized end-user purchasers, carton replacement programs, such as fruit packaging, have been practiced, and many merchants have replaced cartons with plastic crates.
Many similar bloody cases have been staged in various places, so we can't just see that the carton industry is already in an ambush state. I don't know that the paper industry is hiding huge hidden dangers when it is welcoming beautiful performance reports.
Crisis 4: Orders shrink, cash flow is exhausted
With the fluctuation of the price of raw paper and the increasing investment in environmental protection, the small and medium-sized carton factories in the future will face the risk of financial difficulties and market shrinkage. The reasons are as follows:
1. The price of raw paper is rising steadily. Enterprises need to pay more for the same raw materials. Some small and medium-sized carton factories have relied on bank loans to survive. The company has insufficient liquidity. It is difficult to borrow from banks because of its lack of credit. Difficulties in funding are the key factors leading to the collapse of enterprises.
2. In the future, small and medium-sized carton factories will face a shrinking market, as most small and medium-sized carton factories win the market by virtue of price advantage. However, after the price of raw materials has risen, the advantages of small and medium-sized carton factories have become a disadvantage. The bargaining power of customers is relatively weak. It can be described as a difficult situation. If you want to operate at a loss, you may only rely on throwing out some loss orders. Guarantee.
In other words, the price increase has narrowed the price of low-end products and the price difference between mid-to-high end. When companies choose products, they will give up low-end products without price advantage, and will spend more money to buy high-end products.
Coupled with the Sino-US trade war, foreign-invested companies will shift their orders to Southeast Asia and India with low manufacturing costs. The possibility of shrinking the market for small and medium-sized carton factories is very high.
Undoubtedly, when the upstream paper industry breaks away from the actual pursuit of huge profits, which leads more customers in the terminal industry to consider the substitutes for carton packaging, then the impact on the paper packaging printing industry will be fatal, and the papermaking that is dependent on it. The industry is also deadly.
In the current economic environment of internal and external troubles, the pressure of survival of domestic enterprises has reached the edge of collapse, and the batch collapse of downstream enterprises will inevitably affect the entire industrial chain, so the upstream raw material enterprises are not likely to be independent, and cherish it!